California'due south 30 largest school districts are about evenly divided on whether they plan to further shorten this bookish year if Proposition thirty fails next week, according to a new survey by EdSource Today. A third of the districts have already negotiated with their unions to lop anywhere from a week to a calendar month from the schoolhouse calendar if the initiat ive is defeated. Slightly more than than a third report that they do not plan any more furlough days, and the residual say that a shorter school year remains an option that they programme to raise with their unions.

Responses from the 30 largest school districts, enrolling a tertiary of the state's 6.2 meg students (see chart below), represent a snapshot of how school officials and teachers unions due westill deal with the consequences if Prop. 30 is defeated. Notwithstanding, the picture remains fluid. Some districts shifted their positions during the two weeks that EdSource Today collected data, and others offered ambiguous answers, reflecting dubiousness over how they'll respond to a sizable cut to their budgets.

(courtesy of Educate Our State)

(courtesy of Educate Our State)

In a lament that has become a refrain amongst district leaders, Stockton Unified superintendent Steve Lowder said the commune has made so many programmatic cuts over the past five years that shortening the school twelvemonth is all that remains on the table if Prop. 30 goes downwards. The district budget assumes voter approving of Prop 30 and keeps the school year at 180 days. In the worst-example scenario, Lowder said he would accept to reopen bargaining with the marriage to shorten the school twelvemonth past 20 days. "If I tin can't cut $15 million this year, I'grand bankrupt in 18 months," said Lowder. "The frustration and ache is spent."

Proposition 30 is the state initiative backed by Gov. Jerry Dark-brown that would raise the sales tax by a quarter cent for the next four years and increment state income taxes on the wealthiest Californians for 7 years. It began life with strong support, but a newly released Field Poll and a recent poll past the Public Policy Institute of California show the ballot measure out falling brusk of the necessary majority vote.

Uncertainty over its fate has farther complicated a budgeting process that is already an practise in economic assumptions. Some, like San Jose Unified and Poway Unified, budgeted without counting on Prop. 30 revenues. They made cuts in programs or spent down reserves, and are among the dozen districts that reported they would not impose furloughs this yr, although all bets are off for next twelvemonth. The failure of the measure would be a double whammy to schools. Not just would it mean no increase in the Proposition 98 schoolhouse funding guarantee, but it would likewise trigger an additional $five.four million in midyear cuts (for K-12 and customs colleges), amounting to 6 percent of Prop. 98 funding, or $439 per student.

Those trigger cuts are ongoing, likewise, then even districts that have been able to utilise their reserves this year to stave off major cuts will probable have to consider furloughs next twelvemonth when those reserve funds are used up.

In setting the level of Thousand-12 and community college spending for this year, the Legislature assumed that Proposition 30 would pass. Still, realizing there'southward a chance it might non succeed, lawmakers gave districts a fiscal out and lowered the minimum length of the bookish year for this year and for 2013-xiv to 160 days – three weeks less than last twelvemonth and 20 days below the land's standard 180-day school yr. At this point, few districts have taken that drastic step; one that has is San Diego Unified, the state's second-largest district with 131,000 students. The commune and its unions have agreed to 161 days for this year and next, knocking nineteen days off its schoolhouse calendar.

Others operated on the belief that Prop. 30 would pass, but they also developed contingencies, a Plan B if yous will, that would either kick in on November 7 or accept to be renegotiated with the union if the initiative loses.

"Nosotros're waiting to see what happens on November half dozen. If Prop. thirty fails, we will sit down the next 24-hour interval to talk over what our options will be for side by side year. We're at the bespeak where we don't have much nosotros tin can lay off," said Dianne Poore, assistant superintendent of business in Anaheim Unified. Layoffs would be express anyhow because, by law, districts can't lay off teachers midyear, so furloughs and letting go of classified staff are among the few options bachelor. The district already has an understanding with its union for five furlough days this year. Even with those reductions, Poore said the district could wind up on the qualified list when the Country Section of Education releases its first interim report on schoolhouse districts' financial health in early 2013. ("Qualified" means the district is in danger of not existence able to meet its fiscal obligations.)

San Bernardino Urban center Unified reported to EdSource it would most probable put a freeze on hiring for 166 vacant positions and would no longer fifty-fifty fill them with substitutes.

Los Angeles Unified, the 2d-largest district in the country, also went on the assumption that Prop. 30 would laissez passer. This wasn't a determination based on the proverbial counting their chickens earlier they hatched; rather, the district decided it was best non to lay off scores of teachers for zippo. The various approaches illustrate differences in school district values, practical considerations, and how adventure averse they are, hypothesized Bob Blattner, whose education consulting firm advises a number of California school districts.

These districts "believed they couldn't cut any deeper into core programs and take pedagogy worth showing up for. Rather than do less every day, they decided information technology was time to protect what they accept and do information technology for fewer days," said Blattner. "Other districts said, 'We would rather go into the yr knowing what we've got and adapt to a pleasant surprise than impose midyear cuts.' The difference reflects the genius of local control."

Fifty-fifty though the trigger cuts are included in the upkeep nib for this yr, Republican legislators vowed to rescind them. In a letter of the alphabet sent this week to the teachers unions, heads of the three public college and academy systems, and several advocacy groups, GOP leaders wrote, "It is time to put aside partisan politics and put education beginning." Just, even if they get enough Democrats to cross the aisle, Gov. Chocolate-brown has repeatedly stated he would veto whatever endeavour by lawmakers to repeal the trigger cuts.

That leaves districts like Los Angeles Unified with possible scenarios that include borrowing funds confronting its reserve with no certainty of getting the money back from the land, or shortening the school year past another one to two weeks, ending the term in mid-April.

"I exercise not need to remind you of either the fiscal or credit situation this would identify the district in," wrote Gayle Pollard-Terry, LAUSD's Deputy Director of Communications and Media Relations, in the EdSource Today survey. "The district'south financial forecast for 2014-15 is not sustainable or feasible and the reserve would no longer exist," she added. "I fully realize the stark and dark motion picture that this information paints, but I feel that information technology is the responsibility of this part to inform yous of the fiscal affect on the district if Suggestion thirty should become downwardly now that all the numbers have come up into focus."

LAUSD has signaled that it intends to stop school 3 weeks early on in May, if Prop. 30 is defeated. So, far information technology has already negotiated with employee groups to end schoolhouse five days or one calendar week early on for a 175-day academic year. Afterwards Nov. vi, the district may ask unions for farther discussions, co-ordinate to Thomas Waldman, director of Communications and Media Relations for the district.

Impact on school year if Prop. 30 and Prop. 38 fail
District (unified unless otherwise indicated)
 		Number of days in Current School Year, 2012–13
 		With Full Trigger Cuts,  No. of Days in Current School Yr Additional Information from Districts
Anaheim Marriage High
 		180 175* Reserves covered $12 million – non bachelor in 2013-14.
Capistrano 175 165* Furloughs would exist needed if Prop. 30 passes.
Chino Valley
 		175 175 No boosted furlough days planned at this fourth dimension for 2012-xiii.
Clovis 180† 180† Possible furlough days but not in 2012-13 district plan.
Corona-Norco 175 To Exist Decided (TBD) Contract allows reopening talks for more furlough days.
Elk Grove 180†† 180 Should Prop. 30 neglect, "we will face meaning cuts in future years."
Fontana 175 170* Commune besides has negotiated v furlough days in 2013-14.
Fremont 180 TBD Agreements with iii employee groups on iii furlough days in 2012-thirteen; non yet with teachers.
Fresno 180 180 If Prop. thirty fails, district estimates its full loss volition be $29 million.
Garden Grove 177 177 Going frontward to 2013-14, "all options are on the table."
Kern Union High
 		180 TBD If Prop. 30 fails, concessions could include furlough days, bacon cuts, or health benefits.
Long Embankment
 		180 TBD Upward to 20 furloughs days among options lath would consider.
Los Angeles
 		175 160** If Prop. 30 passes, district hopes to restore some furlough days.
Montebello 180 175** $13 million trigger cut equals 180-250 employees.
Moreno Valley 175 175 District is assuming 7 more furlough days in 2013-14.
Mt. Diablo 180 171* Still needs to find $3 million for 2012-xiii – cuts or reserves.
Oakland 180 180 Avoided furloughs past cut developed ed, classified layoffs.
Poway 180 180 On the block 2013-14: furlough days, elementary music, HS sports, pocket-sized 1000-3 classes.
Riverside 180 180 District is considering four to twenty furlough days in 2013-14.
Sacramento Urban center 178 168* Unions, commune agreed to a total of 12  furlough days in 2013-14 if Prop. xxx fails.
Saddleback Valley 176 176 Staff/program reductions likely; classified  workers, management.
San Bernardino City 175 175 Will not fill 166 jobs left vacant in event of Prop. 30. losing.
San Diego 175 161* Furlough days can be extended to 2013-14 under agreement.
San Francisco 179.five 174.five* District expects up to five more furlough days in 2013-14 if Prop. 30 fails.
San Jose 180 180 District's larger than average reserves (23%) cushioned cuts.
San Juan 179 168* Placed freeze on pace-pay increases; cut stipends in one-half.
Santa Ana 180 TBD In 2013-14, structural arrears grows to $48 million with trigger cuts; furloughs are 'concluding resort.'
Stockton 180 160** District causeless Prop. thirty would pass, now warns of insolvency.
Sweetwater Union Loftier
 		178 167*
Twin Rivers 175 165** District is planning for a total of 15 furlough days in 2013-14.

Source: Responses from officials of 30 largest school districts to October survey.

* Reflects furlough days negotiated with teachers wedlock based on full impact of trigger cuts; some contracts call for rescinding furlough days if trigger cuts are reduced.

** Some furlough days likely; number reflects district proposal.

† Clovis has 179 instructional days for elementary; 180 for secondary.
††Elk Grove Unified besides has year-circular schools with 171 instructional days in their schoolhouse twelvemonth.

Additional reporting by Susan Frey and Christine Strena

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